As a Manchester-born analyst with a decade of tactical deep-dives, I’ve seen this script play out before—group stage drama where mutual results trump goal difference. If Miami and Palmeiras draw, both advance. But it’s not about luck; it’s about the cracks in their backlines. Here’s why their defensive fragility isn’t just a flaw—it’s a pattern. And if Porto or Coro Nacional win? The math doesn’t lie. Let me break it down for you.