WNBA Midseason Madness: Liberty's Struggles, Aces' Slide, and the Rise of the Underdogs

WNBA’s Bizarro Midseason

Five weeks into the 2025 campaign, the WNBA has flipped its script upside down. My Python models are throwing error messages trying to process these anomalies:

The Liberty’s Broken Compass New York’s championship-caliber roster is navigating like a GPS with dead batteries. Despite Sabrina Ionescu’s 18.3 PPG, they’ve dropped 4 of their last 5 - including that 106-91 shellacking by Phoenix where Brittney Griner treated their paint defense like a buffet line. Their 86-81 OT win against Atlanta on June 17th was less a victory than a warning flare.

Vegas: Betting Against Themselves The Aces’ 83-94 loss to Washington on June 27th marked their fifth defeat in seven games. My R scripts highlight a disturbing trend: their defensive rating has slipped from 92.3 to 101.6 since Chelsea Gray’s calf strain. Without her quarterbacking, they’re committing 15.2 TOs/game - third worst in the league.

Surprise Packages Stealing Scenes

Fever Dreams Coming True Indiana’s 94-86 takedown of Seattle on June 25th wasn’t a fluke. Aliyah Boston’s league-leading 62.1% FG% anchors an offense that’s jumped from 12th to 5th in efficiency. Their +7.8 net rating since June 10 would make Moneyball Billy Beane blush.

Storm’s Quiet Domination While everyone obsesses over superteams, Seattle’s methodically dismantled opponents with Jewel Loyd’s 24.6 PPG (on 41% from three). That 98-67 demolition of LA on June 18? Textbook defensive execution - holding the Sparks to 32.8% shooting while forcing 18 turnovers.

What’s Next: July Forecast

My playoff probability model gives these key matchups to watch:

• June 29: PHX @ LV - Can the Mercury exploit Vegas’ shaky perimeter D? (Spoiler: Diana Taurasi still owns Nevada)
• Pending: CHI vs LA Sparks - Sky’s rookie Kamilla Cardoso vs. Dearica Hamby could be the frontcourt duel of the week

The data suggests we’re heading toward the most wide-open postseason in a decade. As a stats guy who grew up watching MJ’s Bulls, this level of parity makes my spreadsheets tingle.