WNBA & Global Football Roundup: By the Numbers

The Liberty-Dream Tug-of-War New York Liberty’s 86-81 win over Atlanta Dream was statistically improbable - their 62% paint shooting defied Dream’s league-leading interior defense. My Python model gave them just 34% win probability at halftime. Key outlier: Sabrina Ionescu’s 4th quarter (+12.3 on/off rating) with two logo threes that broke Dream’s zone defense like expired aspirin.

Brazilian Second Division Drama Volta Redonda vs. Avaí (1-1) saw more midfield turnovers than a bakery clearance sale. xG maps show Avaí underperformed by 1.7 expected goals - their striker’s 87th-minute sitter miss would’ve made a great “How Not To Finish” tutorial.

Club World Cup Shock South Korea’s Ulsan HD losing 0-1 to South Africa’s Mamelodi Sundowns wasn’t just an upset - it violated three of my Asian football predictive algorithms simultaneously. Sundowns’ xG of 0.43 from 3 shots on target suggests either black magic or exceptionally bad goalkeeping (I’m running diagnostics).

Sun Burns Fever Connecticut’s 88-71 domination of Indiana featured:Alyssa Thomas’ triple-double (14/11/10) achieved by halftime (okay, slight exaggeration) and Fever’s alarming -22.4 net rating when Caitlin Clark sat. As a stats guy, watching Indiana’s defense collapse faster than my fantasy team brought both pain and spreadsheet material.