What If the Lakers Kept Westbrook and Traded LeBron? The 3-peat Scenario That Never Was

The Ultimate NBA ‘What-If’

Let’s be honest — we’ve all gone down this rabbit hole. What if the Lakers didn’t trade for LeBron James in 2018? What if they’d kept Russell Westbrook instead? And more provocatively — what if they’d flipped LeBron for Westy in a blockbuster deal?

Yes, it sounds like a fever dream from an alternate universe where contracts were swapped like trading cards. But as someone who’s built Tableau dashboards tracking player movement and team synergy, I’ll tell you: there’s actual data behind this absurdity.

Let’s get into it — not with hype, but with spreadsheets.

Salary Parity Meets Playoff Logic

Back in 2018, both players were making roughly $35M per season. LeBron was entering his final year of his first deal with L.A., while Westbrook was on a max extension that would last until 2021.

So hypothetically: swap salaries, keep the same roster structure (e.g., Anthony Davis still joins), and ask: could that version of the Lakers have won three championships?

The key variable here isn’t just talent — it’s role fit. Data shows that when players overperform their expected usage (like Westbrook did in OKC), their efficiency drops sharply under high minutes loads. In fact, my analysis of ESPN’s Player Impact Estimate (PIE) reveals that Westbrook averaged below-average PER during playoff runs after 2017.

Meanwhile, LeBron consistently delivered elite postseason metrics across multiple teams. His ability to elevate teammates — especially through playmaking and floor spacing — is statistically unmatched.

The Championship Math Doesn’t Lie

Now let’s simulate: three years under this new roster setup.

Year 1: Same core (LeBron → Westy). No immediate title win due to chemistry issues. But wait — think about continuity. Without LeBron as the primary offensive engine, roles shift toward AD and younger guards like Lonzo Ball or Kyle Kuzma.

Could it work? Maybe… in theory. But here’s the kicker: over those seasons (2019–2021), no team with Westbrook at point guard even cracked the Finals unless paired with elite shooting wings or defensive specialists.

And yes — even though he had All-NBA seasons pre-trade, his real-time impact during deep playoff runs was inconsistent compared to LeBron’s sustained dominance.

So while keeping Westy might have preserved cap space longer… it likely cost them championship window timing.

A Lesson in Team Architecture

This isn’t about hating on Russell Westbrook — far from it. He brought energy, toughness, and one of the most explosive scoring seasons ever recorded (42 PPG!). But basketball isn’t just about individual stats; it’s about system design.

I’ve seen too many teams chase ‘star power’ without considering rotational harmony. The Lakers’ success wasn’t just because of two superstars; it was how they structured around AD and created spacing via shooters like Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. LeBron wasn’t just a scorer. He was an architect. He elevated everyone around him by adjusting tempo, creating passing lanes, and managing fatigue across long series. The only other player who did that consistently at scale? Kareem Abdul-Jabbar… but we’re not going there today (though I’m tempted).

Westbrook is great at driving chaos; LeBron thrives within systems built for peak performance under pressure. One wins games when things go wrong; one builds systems so things don’t go wrong in the first place.

Final Verdict – Three Peats? Unlikely But Not Impossible

The short answer? Probably not. The longer answer? Only if every single external factor aligned perfectly: injury luck for AD + full health across rotation players + consistent coaching decisions + zero media distractions + some serious fortune in playoff matchups = maybe a two-peat… maybe even three if injuries hit elsewhere.* The odds are astronomically low—especially since Western Conference competition got stronger post-2019 with Denver thriving under Malone & Murray.” The irony? We’re debating whether keeping Westy would’ve led to glory… when really we should be asking: “What made LeBron so special beyond stats”? The real take-home lesson? Picking stars matters less than picking the right star for your system.