Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Where Data Meets Drama

The Underdog Hour
When Amazon FC – yes, that Amazon FC – pulled off a 2-1 upset against Vila Nova, my spreadsheet literally blinked red. Their xG of 1.3 outperformed their actual goals by 35%, proving even second-division football defies logic sometimes. Meanwhile, Criciúma decided ties are boring after three consecutive draws, finally edging Ferroviária 2-1 with a 89’ winner that had 0.07 expected goal value. Somewhere, a statistician wept.

Goiás’ Ascent by Numbers
Watching Goiás climb to third place feels like witnessing a Python script execute perfectly - if said script involved aerial duels won at 68% efficiency (league best). Their 2-1 victory over Atlético-MG B wasn’t pretty, but their defensive PPDA of 6.3 in the second half shows how they strangle games. Pro tip: never bet against teams that celebrate clean sheets like trophies.

The Draw Epidemic
Five stalemates this round would make a chess grandmaster proud. The Volta Redonda vs. Brasil de Pelotas snorefest produced fewer shots (9) than my morning espresso count. Yet Remo’s goalless draw against Paysandu? That was pure tactical pornography - two managers so afraid of losing they parked double-decker buses facing each other.

Coming Up Next:

• Can Avai recover after shipping four (!) to Minas Gerais?
• Why América-MG’s set-piece woes (0 goals from corners in 5 games) demand urgent attention
• My algorithmic prediction for the Botafogo-SP vs. Vila Nova clash (spoiler: bring antacids)