Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Key Matches, Surprises, and Data-Driven Insights

The Unpredictable Charm of Brazil’s Second Tier

Having analyzed European football for years, I’m constantly fascinated by Brazilian Serie B’s unique blend of raw passion and tactical chaos. The 12th round proved no exception, delivering 22 matches where expected goals (xG) models went to die.

Standout Results:

• Paraná Clube’s 2-0 victory over Avai showcased textbook counterattacking (1.9 xG vs. Avai’s 0.8)
• Goiás’ comeback win against Minas Gerais AC (2-1) revealed mental resilience - they’ve now won 3 of their last 4 when conceding first

Defensive Walls & Leaky Boats

The numbers highlight two extremes:

1. Clean Sheet Kings:

   • Cuiabá kept their 5th shutout (0-0 vs. Remo)
   • Averaging just 0.7 goals conceded per game

2. Defensive Disasters:

   • Brasil de Pelotas conceded in ¹¹⁄₁₂ matches
   • Their xGA (expected goals against) sits at league-worst 1.8 per match

The Promotion Picture

With 14 rounds remaining:

• Botafogo-SP (1-0 over Chapecoense) are dark horses with:
  • League-best defensive organization (0.5 xGA/match)
  • But worrying creativity issues (only 6 big chances created)

My predictive model still favors:

1. Goiás (54% promotion probability)
2. Coritiba (48%)
3. Avaí (42%)

Note: All stats via Opta-style tracking - because gut feelings belong in pub arguments, not professional analysis.