চূড়ান্ত হয়ম:দুটি দলেরও

18শে জুন, 2025 - ‘মধ্যরাত’। ‘ফাইনাল whistel’-এর আগ। 1-1.।খুবই “সহজ”।

আমি,যিনি xG, heatmaps-এর ‘অতিরিক্ত’ (overlook)পছন্দকারী,তবেও -এটা “উৎকষ্ট”!

xG-এর ടগ-অফ-ওয়ার:

ওল্টা: xG=1.43;কিন্তু soly one goal. আভাই: xG=0.97;but converted the only chance.

Volta Redonda:56% possession, but 37% low-quality shots. Avaí:6 shots—3 high-danger (set pieces & transitions).

Midfield Control & Turnovers:

Volta Redonda didn’t win a single aerial duel in final third. Avaí’s avg turnover recovery time =49 sec—elite for counterpressing teams. Brito-Zé Luiz-Marinho trio intercepted every 87 sec on average in first half.

Missed Chances That Cost More Than Points:

The João Pedro miss (6th yard, xG=0.73)—one of the highest-value misses this season. The Avaí goal? A curling free-kick from outside box—xG=0.48—but perfect execution under pressure.

Playoff Implications:

The draw leaves both at 14 points (mid-table), but data tells a different story: Volta Redonda lost to top-five sides in three consecutive games—with only two wins vs bottom-half since April. Avaí unbeaten in five road games (3W–2D), with sustainable performance beyond expectation per regression model. The odds now favor Avaí if they meet again before October playoffs.